China’s radiata log inventory has recently decreased to approximately 2.5 m3. Despite this reduction, the daily port off-take has remained steady, ranging from 60-70k m3 per day. These figures are considered normal for this time of year in China.
Currently, the CFR price in China for A grade logs is within the range of 110-115 USD per JASm3. Market expectations indicate that around 1.4m m3 of logs will arrive from New Zealand in September. Although this quantity is slightly less than the demand, the market remains unconcerned as China approaches its National Day Golden Week of holidays, which is set to begin on October 1st.
The Chinese log market has been relatively stable in recent months, with prices showing little fluctuation. This stability can be attributed to the consistent level of daily port off-take and the manageable inventory levels. Additionally, the market is not anticipating any significant changes in the near future, as the demand is expected to remain steady.
New Zealand has been a major supplier of logs to China, and September’s expected arrival of 1.4m m3 further solidifies this partnership. The consistent supply from New Zealand has helped meet the demand in China, although it falls slightly short of the current needs. However, this shortfall is not a cause for concern, as the market remains confident in its ability to manage the situation.
China’s National Day Golden Week is a significant holiday period, during which many businesses and industries experience a slowdown. This year, the holiday is expected to have a similar impact on the log market. As a result, the market is not overly concerned about the slight shortfall in log supply, as it is anticipated that demand will decrease during this holiday period.
Looking ahead, the market expects the log supply to stabilize after the National Day Golden Week. With the arrival of logs from New Zealand and the anticipated decrease in demand during the holiday period, the market is confident that the current inventory levels will be sufficient to meet the needs of the industry.
In conclusion, China’s radiata log inventory has decreased, but the market remains stable due to the consistent daily port off-take. The CFR price in China for A grade logs is within an acceptable range, and the arrival of 1.4m m3 of logs from New Zealand in September is expected to help meet the demand. The market is not concerned about the slight shortfall in supply, as China approaches its National Day Golden Week of holidays. Overall, the log market in China is expected to remain stable in the coming months.