The forthcoming 2024 US election holds immense significance for the nation’s climate and energy policies. While the federal government’s stance on clean energy may undergo changes based on the outcome of the election, state-level elections could also shape the progress towards the country’s climate objectives. As Democrats and Republicans prepare for the election, their divergent approaches to clean energy and climate initiatives provide insight into the potential path of the nation’s renewable energy future.
President Joe Biden’s administration made a substantial impact on US climate policy with the introduction of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a $1.2 trillion law aimed at boosting clean energy and reducing carbon emissions. The future of this policy hinges significantly on the results of the presidential election in November 2024. If Vice President Kamala Harris assumes office, experts anticipate a continuation of the Biden administration’s focus on implementing and defending the IRA. This would involve further efforts to promote clean energy incentives, support infrastructure projects, and ensure that businesses and communities benefit from the law’s financial provisions.
However, if Donald Trump secures the presidency, the IRA could face formidable challenges. A Trump-led administration might seek to diminish or eliminate key climate provisions of the IRA and potentially redirect funds to other priorities, such as extending tax cuts from the Trump era. Despite this, experts deem a complete repeal of the IRA highly improbable, even if Republicans gain control of both the House and Senate. The GOP could instead concentrate on modifying aspects of the law, such as the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit, which has drawn criticism from Republican lawmakers.
Irrespective of the election outcome, efforts are expected to address crucial issues like mineral supply chains essential for producing clean energy technologies such as batteries and electric vehicles. A closely divided Congress, coupled with slim majorities, would pose challenges for either party to enact sweeping changes to energy policy. Smaller legislative actions, like incentives for critical mineral production or investments in clean energy infrastructure, are more likely to garner bipartisan support.
If Kamala Harris emerges victorious in the presidential race, her administration would probably continue Biden’s focus on implementing the IRA’s provisions while addressing broader fiscal issues like the national debt and tax policy. In this scenario, there would be a strong emphasis on capital formation, community engagement, and workforce development in clean energy sectors. The Department of Energy (DOE), which has shifted from a research-focused agency to one responsible for deploying clean energy technologies, would play a crucial role in Harris’ energy policy.
Nonetheless, a Harris administration might encounter hurdles in advancing new energy legislation, even if Democrats secure slim majorities in Congress. Mary Anne Sullivan, senior regulatory counsel at Hogan Lovells, suggests that sweeping new climate policies are unlikely to be Harris’ top priority. Instead, Democrats would likely focus on defending and optimizing the IRA rather than pursuing significant new initiatives.
In the event of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, his administration would likely target the IRA for modifications, particularly in provisions related to clean energy tax incentives and electric vehicles. However, wholesale repeal of the law remains improbable due to political and economic constraints. Republican lawmakers have shown caution about dismantling the IRA too aggressively, given its role in stimulating private sector investment in energy projects.
Furthermore, a second Trump administration could adopt a more assertive stance on mineral extraction, especially for resources crucial to clean energy technologies like lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements. This focus on domestic resource extraction aligns with the GOP’s broader strategy to enhance energy independence and reduce reliance on foreign minerals. A survey by Climate Power and Data for Progress indicates Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump on climate and energy issues, particularly among young voters, who are likely to be pivotal in the upcoming presidential election, underscoring the candidates’ differing approaches to these critical issues.
While much attention is on the federal election, state-level elections will play an equally vital role in shaping US climate policy. The 2024 election is anticipated to be one of the largest in US history for state legislative races, with over 6,000 seats up for grabs. Many states have renewable portfolio standards (RPS) or net-zero emission goals closely linked to which party controls the state legislature and governorship.
States with Democratic trifectas, where the party controls both legislative chambers and the governorship, are more likely to advance clean energy initiatives, such as raising renewable energy targets and passing new climate legislation. Conversely, states under Republican trifectas often delegate decisions about energy generation to utility companies and market forces, resulting in slower progress on clean energy objectives.
Several states are poised to witness potential shifts in political control, significantly impacting their clean energy policies. States like New Hampshire, North Carolina, Vermont, and Wisconsin are among those to watch. New Hampshire’s Republican-controlled legislature, for instance, has impeded clean energy development, but a political shift could push for stronger renewable targets. In North Carolina, the governor’s race could affect the state’s 2050 carbon-neutral goal.
Vermont’s 100% RPS by 2035 might face challenges if its Democratic supermajority weakens, while Wisconsin’s redistricting could diminish Republican dominance over energy policies. Regardless of the election outcome, the transition to clean energy is expected to continue, driven by market forces, private sector investments, and bipartisan support for critical mineral production. However, the pace and scale of that transition will be heavily influenced by the results of federal and state elections, making this election a pivotal moment for US climate policy.
