US solar imports of crystalline-silicon solar cells experienced a significant surge in the third quarter of 2024, soaring over four times higher than the same period in 2023, as reported by S&P Global Commodity Insights. This remarkable increase can be attributed to the escalating demand from expanding domestic solar panel factories, driven by policy adjustments and substantial investments in US solar manufacturing.
Solar energy is propelling the clean energy revolution, accelerating global energy transitions with its affordability and technological advancements. The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2024 highlights solar photovoltaic (PV) systems as a leading force in clean energy deployment. By 2030, solar is projected to contribute to over 40% of new power capacity, underscoring its crucial role in global decarbonization efforts. Furthermore, the share of electricity generation from renewables is expected to surge from 22% to 58% by 2035, predominantly led by solar PV. This growth is bolstered by substantial investments and robust policy support in renewables, addressing energy security concerns and emissions reduction.
The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a cornerstone of President Biden’s clean energy policy, offers up to $1.2 trillion in tax incentives over a decade to drive clean energy expansion. The advanced manufacturing tax credit under the IRA has spurred over $34 billion in solar investments, leading to the establishment of numerous new or expanded solar module factories across the United States. As of October, the country’s solar module production capacity has skyrocketed, surpassing 45 GW, with these manufacturing facilities poised to meet a significant portion of the projected US solar demand for 2025 at peak production levels.
Imports of photovoltaic (PV) cells not yet assembled into panels surged to 4,230 MW in Q3, a substantial rise from 903 MW in the third quarter of 2023, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Global Trade Analytics Suite. Over the initial nine months of 2024, unassembled PV cell imports totaled 9,454 MW, marking a nearly 286% increase from 2,448 MW during the same period in 2023. This surge follows President Biden’s decision in August to increase the annual cap on tariff-free PV cell imports from 5 GW to 12.5 GW. Biden cited the solar industry’s positive response to import competition and the growth in module production capacity as key factors influencing the policy change.
The IRA has been instrumental in incentivizing domestic solar panel production through lucrative tax credits. However, despite these advancements, the lack of domestic crystalline cell, wafer, and ingot manufacturing capacity leaves panel manufacturers heavily reliant on imported components. With President-elect Donald Trump indicating plans to introduce new tariffs on foreign-made goods to bolster US manufacturing, the solar industry is bracing for potential shifts in trade policy that could impact supply chains.
While domestic module production is on the rise, imports of fully assembled solar panels continue to be robust. The US imported 15 GW of modules in Q3 2024, slightly lower than the record 17.4 GW in Q2 but consistent with Q3 2023 levels, as per a report from S&P Global. Total panel imports for the first nine months of 2024 reached 47.3 GW, up from 41 GW in the same period last year. Combined cell and module imports from January to September exceeded 56.7 GW, reflecting a 31% increase from the 43.4 GW imported during the same period in 2023. With this resilient supply chain, the US solar market is expected to install over 46 GWdc of solar panels in 2024, with an additional 43.3 GWdc in 2025, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.
In the third quarter, the majority of crystalline solar cell imports originated from factories in Southeast Asia. Malaysia led the pack, accounting for 37.3% of US imports, followed by Thailand (27.6%) and South Korea (20%). Vietnam and Laos contributed smaller shares, at 4% and 3.7%, respectively. Panel imports, encompassing both crystalline and thin-film technologies, were predominantly sourced from Southeast Asia, with Vietnam supplying 32.5%, Thailand contributing 23%, and Malaysia accounting for 13.4%. Other key contributors included Cambodia (11.8%) and India (8.4%).
As solar energy gains traction globally, key players are making significant advancements. Toronto-based SolarBank Corporation, focusing on utility-scale and community solar projects across North America, recently delivered 600 MW of clean energy in the US and Canada, expanding into markets like New York to offset carbon emissions and accelerate the energy transition. Another prominent player is NextEra Energy, a clean energy giant based in Florida with over 72,000 MW of generating capacity, leading in wind and solar power production to reduce carbon emissions through renewable energy and innovative technologies. Similarly, Arizona-based First Solar specializes in thin-film PV panels, boasting a lower carbon footprint and superior durability, with 25 GW of installed capacity and a target of reaching 16 GW annual production by 2025, powering major solar farms worldwide. These companies exemplify the transformative potential of solar energy in achieving a sustainable future.
As the country prepares for potential changes in trade policy under the new administration, companies must adapt to evolving regulations. Despite potential shifts, the combination of robust imports and expanding domestic production capacity positions the US solar market for sustained growth, supporting the transition to clean energy.
