Renewable energy is set to dominate the UK power mix for the entirety of 2024, marking a historic milestone as low-carbon sources like wind, solar, and hydropower are projected to surpass fossil fuels in electricity generation. According to a comprehensive analysis by global energy think tank Ember, this shift signifies a significant transformation in the country’s energy landscape, with wind power expected to emerge as the leading source of electricity, surpassing gas.
In 2024, wind, solar, and hydropower are forecasted to generate 37% of the UK’s electricity, amounting to 103 TWh, while fossil fuels are expected to contribute 35%, totaling 97 TWh. This represents a remarkable progression from 2021, when fossil fuels accounted for 46% of electricity generation, with renewables lagging behind at 27%. The Ember report underscores a sharp decline in power generation from fossil fuels, which has decreased by two-thirds since 2000. This decline can be attributed to the expansion of renewable energy capacity, reduced electricity demand, and more affordable imports.
Gas power, which constituted 34% of the UK’s electricity in 2023, is projected to decline to 30% in 2024, marking its lowest level since 1996. This decline amounts to a 13% drop (13 TWh) year-on-year, representing one of the most significant declines outside of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Notably, the UK’s cessation of coal-fired power generation has played a pivotal role in this transition. The closure of the country’s last coal-fired power plant in 2024 has positioned the UK alongside one-third of OECD nations that have eliminated coal from their energy portfolios.
The Ember study underscores the rapid decline of coal power in the UK since 2012, culminating in zero coal generation by October 2024. The UK’s Department of Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) released a Statistical Release on September 26, 2024, highlighting the diminishing role of coal in the country’s energy landscape during the second quarter of the year. Coal production plummeted to a mere 19,000 tonnes in Q2 2024, marking an 84% decrease compared to the same period in 2023. With the closure of the last major surface mine, Ffos-Y-Fran, at the end of November 2023, large-scale surface mining operations in the UK have been completely phased out.
Despite a slight uptick in coal demand from electricity generators, rising by 6.6% from the previous year to 135,000 tons, coal’s share of the UK’s electricity generation remains below 1% during this period. Concurrently, coal imports have seen a significant decline, dropping to 315,000 tons, the lowest level recorded since the 1970s, indicating a 55% decrease compared to the same quarter in 2023.
The wind power sector has achieved a significant milestone in the UK’s energy transition, poised to surpass gas as the country’s primary source of electricity. In 2024, wind energy is projected to account for 29% of the UK’s electricity generation, amounting to 82 TWh, closely followed by gas at 30% (85 TWh). With a mere 1% difference between the two sources, the race for dominance hinges on variables such as December’s weather conditions, wind speeds, and electricity demand.
The growth in wind power generation has been steady, with a 1.5% increase in total output in 2024, largely propelled by the expansion of onshore wind capacity. Onshore wind generation witnessed a remarkable 23% surge in the first three quarters of the year, marking the second-largest growth since 2017. The addition of new projects, such as the 443 MW Viking Wind Farm on the Shetland Islands, has significantly contributed to this upward trajectory.
Moreover, the lifting of the onshore wind ban in England in July 2024 is expected to further accelerate capacity expansion. In total, 590 MW of new onshore wind capacity has been added in 2024, with an additional 78 MW anticipated by year-end. While onshore wind capacity experiences robust growth, offshore wind projects have progressed at a slower pace in 2024. Although no new offshore projects have come online this year, partial developments like Dogger Bank, Neart na Gaoithe, and Moray West are already feeding power into the grid.
Looking ahead, several large offshore wind farms with a combined capacity of 3.8 GW are slated for completion between 2025 and 2026, signaling a substantial contribution to the UK’s energy mix in the years to come.
The DESNZ report revealed a mixed bag for renewable energy sources in the UK, with solar generation witnessing a 9.5% decline despite the addition of 2.1 GW of new capacity. This drop can be attributed to a 20% decrease in average sunlight hours compared to the previous year. Noteworthy installations include 1.4 GW from solar PV, encompassing new sites like Litchardon Cross, Gorse Lane, Sutton Bridge, Burwell, Porth Wen, and Thaxted.
Conversely, hydro generation experienced a notable surge of 38% due to a significant rise in rainfall, marking the highest levels for Q2 since 2016. Bioenergy generation also saw an overall increase of 29%, despite no new capacity additions. Plant biomass alone witnessed a 47% uptick, rebounding from low levels in the previous year due to plant outages.
As the UK aims to achieve 95% low-carbon electricity by 2030, wind, solar, and hydropower are poised to play a pivotal role in this transition. However, the report underscores concerns regarding biomass carbon emissions and the reliance on imports, posing potential challenges to this shift. Additionally, obstacles in the wind sector, such as grid constraints and payment reductions to projects like the Viking Wind Farm, present hurdles to wind generation during periods of low demand, particularly in Scotland, where a significant portion of the UK’s onshore wind capacity is located.
Despite these challenges, the UK can surmount them through the development of more offshore projects and increased onshore capacity supported by secure financial backing. By 2030, wind power is expected to lead the UK’s transition towards a low-carbon grid, aligning with the country’s renewable energy objectives.
